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A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge. 相似文献
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利用LINUX操作系统下的进程通讯(IPC)技术将中尺度大气模式MM5(V3)与第三代海浪模式WW3进行双向耦合,建立考虑大气-海浪相互作用的风浪耦合模式,在耦合模式中引入3种海表粗糙度参数化方案,通过对一次热带气旋过程的模拟,研究大气-海浪相互作用对热带气旋系统的影响及耦合模式对海表粗糙度参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明:LINUX系统下的进程通讯技术可以方便有效地实现大气和海浪模式的双向耦合,模式运行稳定;耦合模式能够较好的模拟热带气旋的发展和演变过程及其影响下海浪场的分布和演变,模拟结果对海表粗糙度参数化方案较敏感;海浪的反馈作用同时影响了海气间的动力和热力作用过程,不同的海表粗糙度参数化方案下,海浪对两种作用过程不同的影响程度决定了其对气旋系统强度的影响。 相似文献
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This paper presents a procedure for the determination of parameters of non‐local damage models. This is to assure a consistent response of a non‐local damage model, as choice of the internal length and other parameters of the model are varied. Correlations between the internal length and other parameters governing the local constitutive behaviour of the model are addressed and exploited. Focus is put on the relationship between the internal length of the non‐local model and the width of the fracture process zone. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the rigour of the proposed method. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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施一民 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(1):65-68
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Ship floating condition in regular waves is calculated. New equations controlling any ship's floating condition are proposed by use of the vector operation. This form is a nonlinear optimization problem which can be solved using the penalty function method with constant coefficients. And the solving process is accelerated by dichotomy. During the solving process, the ship's displacement and buoyant centre have been calculated by the integration of the ship surface according to the waterline. The ship surface is described using an accumulative chord length theory in order to determine the displacement, the buoyancy center and the waterline. The draught forming the waterline at each station can be found out by calculating the intersection of the ship surface and the wave surface. The results of an example indicate that this method is exact and efficient. It can calculate the ship floating condition in regular waves as well as simplify the calculation and improve the computational efficiency and the precision of results. 相似文献
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